When it comes to predicting "American Idol" winners early, I have a mixed track record.
I underestimated both Kris Allen and Lee DeWyze dramatically, but I also knew after last season's Top 24 performances that Scotty McCreery was going to be unbeatable.
This season, back in January, I fought with clunky Park City wireless to recap the "Idol" premiere the night before the start of the Sundance Film Festival. You can check out my recap here and you can scan all the way to the bottom to see my reaction to Phillip Phillips. I didn't make any similarly hyperbolic statements in any subsequent audition recaps, so I had a hunch. But I also didn't want to believe that "Idol" would prove to be that excruciatingly predictable, so when it came time to lock in my winner for HitFix's "Idol" Fantasy Game, I settled on Jessica Sanchez the week the game began.
No matter who wins on tonight's (May 23) "American Idol" Season 11 finale, it won't be an underdog. Don't fool yourself into thinking otherwise. Phil-Phil has the familiar "Idol"-winning profile. Jessica has the familiar diva vocals. Either result will make total sense.
But naturally, it's gonna take us 127 minutes (according to FOX) to get there.
Click through for the full, exhaustive live-blog. And join the conversation as we approach our results.